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       Posted on May 14th, 2012

Banks and Markets: Substitutes, Complements, or Both?

In traditional banking arrangements, households hold their savings in the form of deposits at the bank, which makes loans to both firms and households and holds these loans to maturity. But in the United States, and to a lesser extent in other developed countries, markets have increasingly taken over the roles traditionally played [...]


       Posted on May 13th, 2012

Time-Consistency and Credible Monetary Policy After the Crisis

The economic crisis and its aftermath have posed significant challenges to policymakers. To help meet those challenges, the Federal Reserve deployed several innovative policy tools to help relieve the stress in financial markets during the crisis. These tools have created their own significant challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the post-crisis [...]


       Posted on April 23rd, 2012

Forecast Bias in Two Dimensions

Economists have tried to uncover stylized facts about people’s expectations, testing whether such expectations are rational. Tests in the early 1980s suggested that expectations were biased, and some economists took irrational expectations as a stylized fact. But, over time, the results of tests that led to such a conclusion were reversed. This paper [...]


       Posted on March 11th, 2012

The Private Premium in Public Bonds

This paper is the first to document the presence of a private premium in public bonds. The authors find that spreads are 31 basis points higher for public bonds of private companies than for bonds of public companies, even after controlling for observable differences, including rating, financial performance, industry, bond characteristics and issuance [...]


       Posted on March 6th, 2012

Recent Developments in Consumer Credit and Payments

On September 22-23, 2011, the Research Department and the Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia held their sixth joint conference to present and discuss the latest research on consumer credit and payments. Eighty-four participants attended the conference, which included seven research papers on the role of home equity in [...]


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